Bitcoin’s July Promise

Since last April, the BTCUSD price has ranged between USD 59,000 and USD 74,000; while its recent stabilisation at around USD 60,000 provides some reassurance, it does not entirely allay fears of a further correction. Trading volumes remain moderate and cautious. In addition, the pending  regulatory decisions, particularly in the United States, are creating a standby effect, an environment  conducive to increased volatility.

However, the data shows that July is often a good month for Bitcoin, with average gains of more than 11% over the past decade. This seasonal trend could well continue again this year, offering investors an encouraging outlook. July returns have been impressive in recent years, with gains of 27% in 2019, 20% in 2020 and 24% in 2021. This seasonality, although sometimes random, can be explained by recurring trends in investor behaviour.

Massive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are a key indicator of investor optimism. The first day of July saw inflows of close to $130 million into US-listed ETFs, their highest level since early June.

This inflow of capital comes after a month of June marked by outflows of over $900 million. This turnaround is seen as a strong sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s bullish potential over the coming weeks.

In addition, the potential launch of an ETH spot ETF could also stimulate interest and strengthen the bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

Given these encouraging signals, many traders are gearing up for a bullish July.

Traders’ strategies often include taking long positions in Bitcoin in anticipation of these seasonal rises. The recent surge in ETF inflows indicates that institutional investors share this optimism and are preparing to take advantage of potential price increases. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant and keep a close eye on market indicators, as fluctuations can be rapid and unpredictable.

In short, July looks promising for bitcoin, with positive signals coming from seasonal cycles and massive inflows into ETFs. Traders and investors are hoping for a significant rebound, supported by growing optimism and historical trends. Nevertheless, the crypto market remains inherently volatile  and unpredictable. The coming weeks will tell us whether these forecasts are borne out or whether new surprises await us. Indeed, despite the optimism of retail traders, the Bitcoin market faces several major challenges. The German and US governments have recently sold significant quantities of Bitcoin, putting downward pressure on the market. But this is not stopping 75% of traders from betting on a rise in the BTCUSD, according to Binance.

The investment firm VanEck (which has in the past earned a reputation for the accuracy of its forecasts) has predicted that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in Q4.